Post by bigblueblues on Aug 17, 2023 12:02:57 GMT -5
Don't shoot the messenger please!
Over/under passing td's for the season Jones is at 17.5 which is less than justin fields, Kenny picket and Mac Jones over/under numbers.
Only Anthony richardson and Desmond ridder have an over/under total less than 17.5.
Part of the issue is I don't think Daboll/Kafka are going to endorse a high flying offense until they are certain the OL pass pro is solid enough. Not to mention they value ball security as much as they did last year, and an offense that is able to matriculate down the field keeps the ball from the other team's offense and keeps the defense rested. That's not going away completely this year. The result is I don't believe DJ is going to have his TD numbers sky rocket. 25 to 30 would be excellent. Anything over 30 would be huge.
But I certainly think the TD numbers for DJ will go up from last year and a betting line of only 2.5 more from his numbers last year should be an easy get.
Having said all that, I think Vegas has it wrong. The improvement in the WR room has to be worth a few passing TDs—more than the 2.5 Vegas claims. And the QB appears far more comfortable in year 2 of this system. He finally has continuity with a system and coaches.