Why Mock draft experts rarely are right in mock drafts
Apr 4, 2020 22:11:36 GMT -5
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TheShade likes this
Post by lazur on Apr 4, 2020 22:11:36 GMT -5
It’s crazy. Every year we all get excited because we see a player we like mocked to us in someone’s mock draft. Yet. Every year once the draft concludes they are never right.
I do a few mock drafts a day. And they come out completely different with the different boards I use. CBS big board has Dillion RB from Boston going round 7. Others like fanspeak Steve have him going round 5. Others round 3. Some boards have S McKenney going round 1. Others he is there for me pick 4 round 2. I have traded down with the Bears round 2 getting bother there 2nd round picks and still was able to get Delpit there. These players are all over the place except a select few
Odukah, Young, Brown, Burrows are usually top 5.
The 4 big Tackes. Wirfs, Wills, Thomas and Becton usually go by pick 20
The receivers are all over. Lamb, Juedy, Ruggs are all over the place but usually will go by picks 25. All 3. Henderson corner usually goes top 15.
Epenesa goes 10-20. But in some boards is there round 2.
Make a long story short. I mock using 6 or 7 boards. The players come off different with every board. Each mock is almost identical if I use the sane board over and over. But if I change boards the outcome changes even from pick 3 up. Only 2 picks that stay the sane is 1 and 2.
Just imagine real liked draft. With 32 teams and every team has there own board and all are different. These experts say a player was a steel or reach. Ya. Off of there board. But a real team board may of been perfect timing.
This I can say is probably accurate. Your top 10 players are probably on most teams boards not in this order
Young
Odukah
Simmons
Wills
Wirfs
Thomas
Brown
Burrow
Juedy
Lamb
I didn’t put those in order but I bet you most boards have those guys there. Now let’s think logical here. Not on players we love or athletic players or even need. Let’s just think here. What positions are the hardest to find in drafts
QB
Pass rushers
LT
Easily the top 3 hardest positions to find. And usually the highest paid. Based off of that. If the Giants are at 4 and stay there. They have Jones. Scratch QB
If Young falls to then. Young is the pick. If Young is there and they stay at 4 the next hardest position to find is LT. So it has to be one of the 4 tackles who they grade the highest. My guess is Wills. If they trade back. OT is almost guaranteed because that position will trump any other player other then Simmons.
Is Simmons more valuable then OT? My reading and studying says no. Why? Because Simmons can cover? Is fast? That doesn’t make him more valuable then a LT. Not even close. Coverage in the NFL can be schemed around. You can hide coverages, blitz etc for areas of weakness in a defense. LT your screwed. If you constantly help your tackles in blocking your no longer playing 10 on11. It’s always 10 on 11 because QBs usually stay home. If you need help in blocking. Your now 9 on 11. And so on. You can’t win consistently in the NFL playing 9 on 11. That’s why LT is so important these days. Zero help vs the highest paid defenders every Sunday.
I no Simmons is wanted by most posters and fans. Even the experts. But when it comes to team building you have to lock down those 3 positions to put your foundation in place to build your team.
QB. Jones
Pass rusher ?
LT ?
You can’t say Solder. He has1 year left here.
If Young is gone. The Giants have to nail down LT for the future
Thoughts
I do a few mock drafts a day. And they come out completely different with the different boards I use. CBS big board has Dillion RB from Boston going round 7. Others like fanspeak Steve have him going round 5. Others round 3. Some boards have S McKenney going round 1. Others he is there for me pick 4 round 2. I have traded down with the Bears round 2 getting bother there 2nd round picks and still was able to get Delpit there. These players are all over the place except a select few
Odukah, Young, Brown, Burrows are usually top 5.
The 4 big Tackes. Wirfs, Wills, Thomas and Becton usually go by pick 20
The receivers are all over. Lamb, Juedy, Ruggs are all over the place but usually will go by picks 25. All 3. Henderson corner usually goes top 15.
Epenesa goes 10-20. But in some boards is there round 2.
Make a long story short. I mock using 6 or 7 boards. The players come off different with every board. Each mock is almost identical if I use the sane board over and over. But if I change boards the outcome changes even from pick 3 up. Only 2 picks that stay the sane is 1 and 2.
Just imagine real liked draft. With 32 teams and every team has there own board and all are different. These experts say a player was a steel or reach. Ya. Off of there board. But a real team board may of been perfect timing.
This I can say is probably accurate. Your top 10 players are probably on most teams boards not in this order
Young
Odukah
Simmons
Wills
Wirfs
Thomas
Brown
Burrow
Juedy
Lamb
I didn’t put those in order but I bet you most boards have those guys there. Now let’s think logical here. Not on players we love or athletic players or even need. Let’s just think here. What positions are the hardest to find in drafts
QB
Pass rushers
LT
Easily the top 3 hardest positions to find. And usually the highest paid. Based off of that. If the Giants are at 4 and stay there. They have Jones. Scratch QB
If Young falls to then. Young is the pick. If Young is there and they stay at 4 the next hardest position to find is LT. So it has to be one of the 4 tackles who they grade the highest. My guess is Wills. If they trade back. OT is almost guaranteed because that position will trump any other player other then Simmons.
Is Simmons more valuable then OT? My reading and studying says no. Why? Because Simmons can cover? Is fast? That doesn’t make him more valuable then a LT. Not even close. Coverage in the NFL can be schemed around. You can hide coverages, blitz etc for areas of weakness in a defense. LT your screwed. If you constantly help your tackles in blocking your no longer playing 10 on11. It’s always 10 on 11 because QBs usually stay home. If you need help in blocking. Your now 9 on 11. And so on. You can’t win consistently in the NFL playing 9 on 11. That’s why LT is so important these days. Zero help vs the highest paid defenders every Sunday.
I no Simmons is wanted by most posters and fans. Even the experts. But when it comes to team building you have to lock down those 3 positions to put your foundation in place to build your team.
QB. Jones
Pass rusher ?
LT ?
You can’t say Solder. He has1 year left here.
If Young is gone. The Giants have to nail down LT for the future
Thoughts