Post by Sunshine on Jan 27, 2018 1:23:52 GMT -5
Let's say the Browns take Darnold, and I think they will. Let's also say that Darnold and Rosen are considered to be the two best players in the draft. When teams take a closer look at these guys, and realize they were both teenagers a year ago, and thus are extremely advanced for their age, people will realize that Darnold and Rosen do stand up to the Andrew Luck and John Elway comparisons. By the way, Eli Manning was either 23 or 24 when he was drafted by the Giants in 2004. In comparison, Darnold will be 20 years old when the draft takes place; Rosen will be 21 when the draft takes place. Amazing. Their youth continues to be overlooked by just about every sportswriter who comments on these things, but I suspect that NFL teams are very much aware of their age and will consider that factor when grading them.
As we know, running backs like Barkley are devalued in today's environment whereas QBs are not. For example, the odds that the Giants find an elite QB in the second round or later are almost zero. In contrast, the odds that the Giants find a top RB in the second round or later are considerably better. The Chiefs found a stud RB in the third round last year, but all of the top QBs were off the board in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson). The QBs that were taken in the second round or later last year are major projects, probably career backups at best. This is why drafting Barkley with the second pick would be an atrocious and incompetent decision.
OK, so we rule out taking Barkley. The solution is pretty simple: the Giants don't have a QB of the future and so draft Rosen after the Browns take Darnold. That is the best idea IMO. The fact that Gettleman wanted to know if Eli was OK with the Giants taking a QB at 2 suggests that the Giants are likely to do that. It is also possible that Eli would have been released if he had a problem with it. Instead, Eli said he was fine with it, the Giants now know they can take Rosen and let him develop under Eli for one year. Rosen is so young--he doesn't need to play in his rookie season.
Rosen will be highly coveted by teams that need a QB. I decided to see what a trade down might look like. I picked the Jets, they need a QB, and would likely be all over Rosen if given the opportunity to draft him. I used Walter Football's draft value chart:
walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
If the Giants swap first round picks with the Jets, allowing the Jets to take Rosen, the Jets would owe the Giants 1,000 points in draft pick value. The Jets would include their first second round pick (37 overall), which is worth 530 points. The Jets have two second round picks, but I only want one of them--this draft doesn't have enough OL depth to demand both. The Jets would owe the Giants 470 points. The Jets would have to include their 2019 first round pick. That pick would easily be worth at least 470 points.
So, in sum, the Giants trade their first round pick (second overall) to the Jets (Jets take Rosen) for the Jets first round pick (6th overall), second round pick (37th overall) and first round pick in 2019. The problem that stands out with this trade from the Giants perspective: the 2019 QB class is going to be very weak according to reports and so the Giants are unlikely to find a QB in that draft class even with two first round picks. By the time we get to the 2019 draft, Eli is a year older; he might not even play that well in 2018; Davis Webb is a pipe dream. Where do the Giants find their QB of the future?
It is hard to agree to a trade down because (1) the 2018 draft isn't loaded with depth especially on the OL and (2) even if the Giants acquire a couple of extra picks for 2019, the QB class is going to be crap. What does a weak QB class look like? Take a look at the 2013 draft class, only one QB went in the first round--the Bills took EJ Manuel. The Jets took Geno Smith in the second round. That was the year the Giants drafted R.Nassib. Thus, having an extra 2019 first round pick isn't necessarily going to help the Giants find a future signal caller.
And taking Barkley with the second pick would be even worse. In that scenario, the Giants don't trade down and gain extra picks. Instead, they have a RB, a skill player, but don't have the picks to improve the OL (whereas the trade down strategy would give the Giants extra picks to upgrade the OL). Moreover, if the Giants take Barkley at two, there is still no coherent plan for finding a future signal caller.
As we know, running backs like Barkley are devalued in today's environment whereas QBs are not. For example, the odds that the Giants find an elite QB in the second round or later are almost zero. In contrast, the odds that the Giants find a top RB in the second round or later are considerably better. The Chiefs found a stud RB in the third round last year, but all of the top QBs were off the board in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson). The QBs that were taken in the second round or later last year are major projects, probably career backups at best. This is why drafting Barkley with the second pick would be an atrocious and incompetent decision.
OK, so we rule out taking Barkley. The solution is pretty simple: the Giants don't have a QB of the future and so draft Rosen after the Browns take Darnold. That is the best idea IMO. The fact that Gettleman wanted to know if Eli was OK with the Giants taking a QB at 2 suggests that the Giants are likely to do that. It is also possible that Eli would have been released if he had a problem with it. Instead, Eli said he was fine with it, the Giants now know they can take Rosen and let him develop under Eli for one year. Rosen is so young--he doesn't need to play in his rookie season.
Rosen will be highly coveted by teams that need a QB. I decided to see what a trade down might look like. I picked the Jets, they need a QB, and would likely be all over Rosen if given the opportunity to draft him. I used Walter Football's draft value chart:
walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
If the Giants swap first round picks with the Jets, allowing the Jets to take Rosen, the Jets would owe the Giants 1,000 points in draft pick value. The Jets would include their first second round pick (37 overall), which is worth 530 points. The Jets have two second round picks, but I only want one of them--this draft doesn't have enough OL depth to demand both. The Jets would owe the Giants 470 points. The Jets would have to include their 2019 first round pick. That pick would easily be worth at least 470 points.
So, in sum, the Giants trade their first round pick (second overall) to the Jets (Jets take Rosen) for the Jets first round pick (6th overall), second round pick (37th overall) and first round pick in 2019. The problem that stands out with this trade from the Giants perspective: the 2019 QB class is going to be very weak according to reports and so the Giants are unlikely to find a QB in that draft class even with two first round picks. By the time we get to the 2019 draft, Eli is a year older; he might not even play that well in 2018; Davis Webb is a pipe dream. Where do the Giants find their QB of the future?
It is hard to agree to a trade down because (1) the 2018 draft isn't loaded with depth especially on the OL and (2) even if the Giants acquire a couple of extra picks for 2019, the QB class is going to be crap. What does a weak QB class look like? Take a look at the 2013 draft class, only one QB went in the first round--the Bills took EJ Manuel. The Jets took Geno Smith in the second round. That was the year the Giants drafted R.Nassib. Thus, having an extra 2019 first round pick isn't necessarily going to help the Giants find a future signal caller.
And taking Barkley with the second pick would be even worse. In that scenario, the Giants don't trade down and gain extra picks. Instead, they have a RB, a skill player, but don't have the picks to improve the OL (whereas the trade down strategy would give the Giants extra picks to upgrade the OL). Moreover, if the Giants take Barkley at two, there is still no coherent plan for finding a future signal caller.