Post by iamboo on Apr 22, 2018 3:07:35 GMT -5
To QB or not to QB? That is the question. We all have our opinions, but what do the numbers say?
With that in mind, I looked at all QB’s drafted in the first round over the past 20 drafts to see if there were any patterns to when they were picked and how successful they were. Below are lists of QB’s over the last 20 years, and their draft position in the first round, put together in various categories. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone or mess up their draft position. I’ve thrown in my opinions for each grouping; successful, not successful, etc. You can agree or disagree with my commentary as you wish. Occasionally, when I wasn’t sure about someone or wanted to check out some information about them, I did look up some statistics on profootballreference.com; otherwise, most of my commentary is based on memory. I apologize for the length of this post in advance. But, 20 years worth of first round QB’s takes up some space.
OK, without further ado:
QB's picked #1 overall since 1998:
Peyton Manning (1998)
Tim Couch (1999)
Michael Vick (2001)
David Carr (2002)
Carson Palmer (2003)
Eli Manning (2004)
Alex Smith (2005)
JaMarcus Russell (2007)
Matthew Stafford (2009)
Sam Bradford (2010)
Cam Newton (2011)
Andrew Luck (2012)
Jameis Winston (2015)
Jared Goff (2016)
Fourteen of the last 20 drafts have featured a QB taken in the #1 position. So how did they fare? Well, we all know JaMarcus Russell is a bust. It is seems that everyone who argues against drafting a QB early likes to point out the massive bust that was JaMarcus Russell in 2007. I guess they point him out because (at this point) he was the last bust that was taken #1 overall as a QB. And, it happened in a draft class that produced NO successful NFL QB’s. The best NFL quarterback that came out in the 2007 draft class was probably Matt Moore…except he wasn’t drafted, he was signed as a rookie free agent. The best one that year that was drafted? I'd say Drew Stanton, simply because he’s still around. Don’t agree? Well, here they all are, the QB class of 2007. You decide: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanback, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Tyler Thigpen. A veritable catalogue of catastrophe. (yes, I used a thesaurus for that last sentence)
As far as other #1 busts, one could say both Tim Couch and David Carr were busts, and I’d agree, but consider this: both were the first ever draft picks of an expansion franchise. Which sort of implies they would struggle to find gobs of success. And not surprisingly, both did not succeed. Couch’s career was cut short because of injuries sustained from playing behind an expansion OL; for Carr, it was the shell shock he developed from playing behind an expansion OL. Interestingly enough, In Carr’s 10 year NFL career, once out of Houston, he backed up Eli Manning for three years. In those three years, he hardly played; but when he did, he completed 32 of 48 passes (66.7%) for 359 yards, 3 TD’s and no INT’s. So, had he been drafted by a decent team, who knows? He could have had a completely different career.
After those three, I’d guess Sam Bradford is probably the worst, but he’s been pretty good. In his career, he's completed 62.5% of his passes, 101 TD's, 57 INT's, and was Rookie of the Year. Not too shabby. Plus, he played with the incredible handicap of having Jeff Fisher as his head coach for a portion of his career. As demonstrated this past season from former Fisher QB’s Jared Goff, Case Keenum and Nick Foles, having Jeff Fisher as your coach can be detrimental to your success as a quarterback. Note that Bradford won Rookie of the year with Steve Spagnuolo as his head coach, not Fisher. Of the others, the rest are pretty good, or in the case of Winston and Goff, seem to be on the right track to having successful careers (assuming Winston can stay out of trouble).
Anyway, to sum up: getting a QB in the #1 overall pick seems to pan out way more often than it doesn't, as long as you are a) not an expansion team, or b) not drafting JaMarcus Russell. So for once, the Browns have reason to hope…unless they trade the pick. Which would be the most Browns thing ever.
Here are the quarterbacks that were picked between picks 2 and 5 in their respective draft years:
Ryan Leaf (2, 1998)
Donovan McNabb (2, 1999)
Robert Griffin III (2, 2012)
Marcus Mariota (2, 2015)
Carson Wentz (2, 2016)
Mitchell Trubisky (2, 2017)
Akili Smith (3, 1999)
Joey Harrington (3, 2002)
Blake Bortles (3, 2014)
Vince Young (3, 2006)
Matt Ryan (3, 2008)
Philip Rivers (4, 2004)
Mark Sanchez (5, 2009)
Thirteen in total. Yes, there have been more QB's taken #1 overall than taken #2 through #5 overall in the past 20 years. Also, there have been more QB's taken in the top 7 slots in the first round of the draft than in the rest of the first round over the same time period. I also find it interesting that the last 3 drafts have gone QB at #2, but only one QB went at #2 between 1999 and 2015, with none between 1999 and 2012. Anyway...
This is truly a mixed bag. Three true franchise QB’s: McNabb, Ryan, and Rivers (and Wentz is certainly looking the part). Three enormous superbusts: Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and Joey Harrington (scarily, all from Pac-12 schools). Consider though that all three were drafted before 2003, so it’s been a while since a massive JaMarcus Russell-sized bust occurred in these draft positions. Of course, there are some “regular” busts too which occurred, like:
Robert Griffin III: he will go down as a bust once his career is finally over, unless a major miracle happens. He did have that one unbelievably great season; hard to say how good he could have been if he hadn't gotten hurt, or if he didn't have a 10 cent head. Of the rest, Sanchez is probably the next worst, but he’s had some success, and is entering his 10th season; so, he’s a mild bust, not a megabust like Leaf, Smith, and Harrington. Vince Young, yes a bust, but he actually had a winning record as a starter, and like Bradford, also dealt with the deficiency of having Jeff Fisher as his head coach, which seems to be the kiss of death for most QB's. Makes me wonder how darn good Steve McNair really was.
For some, (Trubisky, Bortles, Mariota, Wentz) it's too early to tell. None of these four should end up in the same category as Leaf, Smith and Harrington (and some of them are past Bob III and Sanchez as far as bust factor goes); but they may not be franchise QB’s either. So to summarize: in this category, some great, some good, some bad, some awful, some unknown.
Six through ten:
Byron Leftwich (No. 7, 2003)
Jake Locker (No. 8, 2011)
Ryan Tannehill (No. 8, 2012)
Matt Leinart (No. 10, 2006)
Blaine Gabbert (No. 10, 2011)
Patrick Mahomes (No. 10, 2017)
Six total; no QB drafted overall at six or nine, but three at 10? An oddity. But look: Leftwich (way back in 2003) was a really good player. Other than that, maybe Mahomes pans out, maybe Tannehill pans out, but the others are absolute dogs.
Eleven through fifteen (sort of)
Daunte Culpepper (11, 1999)
Ben Roethlisberger (11, 2004)
Jay Cutler (11, 2006)
Cade McNown (12, 1999)
Christian Ponder (No. 12, 2011)
Deshaun Watson (No. 12, 2017)
That's it, no QB's drafted at 13-15. Maybe I should have combined this group with the above group, and called them draft positions 7-12. As a group, this one is way better than the previous group. Roethlisberger is a Hall of Famer, Culpepper was on his way to a HOF career before injuries ended his effectiveness, Cutler has had a decent career (despite playing on mostly subpar teams, and, oh, despite alleged attitude “issues”), and Watson looks like the real deal. Cade McNown didn’t make it, but he was the fifth QB taken that year; how often does the 5th QB drafted succeed anyway? Plus, it was 19 years ago. So, the only guy drafted this century who didn't pan out in this grouping was Ponder.
16 through 20:
EJ Manuel (No. 16, 2013)
Josh Freeman (No. 17, 2009)
Chad Pennington (No. 18, 2000)
Joe Flacco (No. 18, 2008)
Kyle Boller (No. 19, 2003)
Only five total, but what a wide variety of results. Flacco won a SB and SB MVP, and I guess is a franchise type QB, but overall isn't someone I'd consider elite. Pennington put together a nice career, starting for the Jets five or six years and the Dolphins for a couple; nothing special, but certainly not a bust. Freeman’s career started off decent, but then he got Schiano as his HC; he’s a bust. Manuel and Boller are outright busts. One could argue that Flacco (from Delaware) and Pennington (from Marshall) might have been drafted slightly higher if they had played in NCAA Division I-A (FBS); in case you are wondering, back in 2000, Marshall was in NCAA Division I AA (FCS). So, based on this small sample, aside from the two FCS superstars, drafting a QB in this area seems to be fraught with danger.
Finally, 21 through 32. I combined this group since only 3 QB’s have been drafted after position #25:
Rex Grossman (No. 22, 2003)
J.P. Losman (No. 22, 2004)
Brady Quinn (No. 22, 2007)
Brandon Weeden (No. 22, 2012)
Johnny Manziel (No. 22, 2014)
Aaron Rodgers (No. 24, 2005)
Jason Campbell (No. 25, 2005)
Tim Tebow (No. 25, 2010)
Paxton Lynch (No. 26, 2016)
Patrick Ramsey (No. 32, 2002)
Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32, 2014)
What is it with #22? If someone said to you, "in the last 20 years, in the first round, the first position (#1 overall) has seen the most QB's picked; the second position (#2) has seen the second most QB’s picked; and the 3rd position (#3) has seen the 3rd most QB’s picked, but is tied with another draft position for that honor. What other draft position in the first round has seen the 3rd most QB’s taken?" Would you guess #22? I wouldn't. But look at all those 22’s...Aside from Rex Grossman, who was average at best, all busts. Of course, the last three were drafted by Cleveland, which might partially explain the terrible play.
In fact, most QB’s are busts in this area. Only one name truly stands out. And not that he is just a decent starter; Aaron Rodgers is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. However, do you remember that draft? Going in, it was a toss-up between Alex Smith and Rodgers as to who would go #1 overall to the 49ers; they were very closely rated. And most draft pundits thought whichever one didn't get picked #1 overall would fall in the draft since no team needed (or thought they needed) a QB early on. And it happened…one was picked #1 overall, the other fell. I’d have to believe that, if you had two guys like Smith and Rodgers ranked as the two best QB's in the draft today with very little separation, no way in h-e-double-hockey-sticks do they NOT go 1 and 2 overall. If Wentz, a QB from FCS North Dakota State can go #2 in the 2016 draft, then surely an Aaron Rodgers nowadays would be a #2 pick.
So, what did I learn from all of this? One, it’s work finding all this stuff (at least it was for me). If I messed any data up, I apologize and it wasn't intentional. But more to the point: it seems if you draft a QB in round 1, you better take the best one, or one of the best ones, and take him early. After draft pick #12, chances of finding a gem in round 1 are extremely small.
With that in mind, I looked at all QB’s drafted in the first round over the past 20 drafts to see if there were any patterns to when they were picked and how successful they were. Below are lists of QB’s over the last 20 years, and their draft position in the first round, put together in various categories. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone or mess up their draft position. I’ve thrown in my opinions for each grouping; successful, not successful, etc. You can agree or disagree with my commentary as you wish. Occasionally, when I wasn’t sure about someone or wanted to check out some information about them, I did look up some statistics on profootballreference.com; otherwise, most of my commentary is based on memory. I apologize for the length of this post in advance. But, 20 years worth of first round QB’s takes up some space.
OK, without further ado:
QB's picked #1 overall since 1998:
Peyton Manning (1998)
Tim Couch (1999)
Michael Vick (2001)
David Carr (2002)
Carson Palmer (2003)
Eli Manning (2004)
Alex Smith (2005)
JaMarcus Russell (2007)
Matthew Stafford (2009)
Sam Bradford (2010)
Cam Newton (2011)
Andrew Luck (2012)
Jameis Winston (2015)
Jared Goff (2016)
Fourteen of the last 20 drafts have featured a QB taken in the #1 position. So how did they fare? Well, we all know JaMarcus Russell is a bust. It is seems that everyone who argues against drafting a QB early likes to point out the massive bust that was JaMarcus Russell in 2007. I guess they point him out because (at this point) he was the last bust that was taken #1 overall as a QB. And, it happened in a draft class that produced NO successful NFL QB’s. The best NFL quarterback that came out in the 2007 draft class was probably Matt Moore…except he wasn’t drafted, he was signed as a rookie free agent. The best one that year that was drafted? I'd say Drew Stanton, simply because he’s still around. Don’t agree? Well, here they all are, the QB class of 2007. You decide: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanback, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Tyler Thigpen. A veritable catalogue of catastrophe. (yes, I used a thesaurus for that last sentence)
As far as other #1 busts, one could say both Tim Couch and David Carr were busts, and I’d agree, but consider this: both were the first ever draft picks of an expansion franchise. Which sort of implies they would struggle to find gobs of success. And not surprisingly, both did not succeed. Couch’s career was cut short because of injuries sustained from playing behind an expansion OL; for Carr, it was the shell shock he developed from playing behind an expansion OL. Interestingly enough, In Carr’s 10 year NFL career, once out of Houston, he backed up Eli Manning for three years. In those three years, he hardly played; but when he did, he completed 32 of 48 passes (66.7%) for 359 yards, 3 TD’s and no INT’s. So, had he been drafted by a decent team, who knows? He could have had a completely different career.
After those three, I’d guess Sam Bradford is probably the worst, but he’s been pretty good. In his career, he's completed 62.5% of his passes, 101 TD's, 57 INT's, and was Rookie of the Year. Not too shabby. Plus, he played with the incredible handicap of having Jeff Fisher as his head coach for a portion of his career. As demonstrated this past season from former Fisher QB’s Jared Goff, Case Keenum and Nick Foles, having Jeff Fisher as your coach can be detrimental to your success as a quarterback. Note that Bradford won Rookie of the year with Steve Spagnuolo as his head coach, not Fisher. Of the others, the rest are pretty good, or in the case of Winston and Goff, seem to be on the right track to having successful careers (assuming Winston can stay out of trouble).
Anyway, to sum up: getting a QB in the #1 overall pick seems to pan out way more often than it doesn't, as long as you are a) not an expansion team, or b) not drafting JaMarcus Russell. So for once, the Browns have reason to hope…unless they trade the pick. Which would be the most Browns thing ever.
Here are the quarterbacks that were picked between picks 2 and 5 in their respective draft years:
Ryan Leaf (2, 1998)
Donovan McNabb (2, 1999)
Robert Griffin III (2, 2012)
Marcus Mariota (2, 2015)
Carson Wentz (2, 2016)
Mitchell Trubisky (2, 2017)
Akili Smith (3, 1999)
Joey Harrington (3, 2002)
Blake Bortles (3, 2014)
Vince Young (3, 2006)
Matt Ryan (3, 2008)
Philip Rivers (4, 2004)
Mark Sanchez (5, 2009)
Thirteen in total. Yes, there have been more QB's taken #1 overall than taken #2 through #5 overall in the past 20 years. Also, there have been more QB's taken in the top 7 slots in the first round of the draft than in the rest of the first round over the same time period. I also find it interesting that the last 3 drafts have gone QB at #2, but only one QB went at #2 between 1999 and 2015, with none between 1999 and 2012. Anyway...
This is truly a mixed bag. Three true franchise QB’s: McNabb, Ryan, and Rivers (and Wentz is certainly looking the part). Three enormous superbusts: Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and Joey Harrington (scarily, all from Pac-12 schools). Consider though that all three were drafted before 2003, so it’s been a while since a massive JaMarcus Russell-sized bust occurred in these draft positions. Of course, there are some “regular” busts too which occurred, like:
Robert Griffin III: he will go down as a bust once his career is finally over, unless a major miracle happens. He did have that one unbelievably great season; hard to say how good he could have been if he hadn't gotten hurt, or if he didn't have a 10 cent head. Of the rest, Sanchez is probably the next worst, but he’s had some success, and is entering his 10th season; so, he’s a mild bust, not a megabust like Leaf, Smith, and Harrington. Vince Young, yes a bust, but he actually had a winning record as a starter, and like Bradford, also dealt with the deficiency of having Jeff Fisher as his head coach, which seems to be the kiss of death for most QB's. Makes me wonder how darn good Steve McNair really was.
For some, (Trubisky, Bortles, Mariota, Wentz) it's too early to tell. None of these four should end up in the same category as Leaf, Smith and Harrington (and some of them are past Bob III and Sanchez as far as bust factor goes); but they may not be franchise QB’s either. So to summarize: in this category, some great, some good, some bad, some awful, some unknown.
Six through ten:
Byron Leftwich (No. 7, 2003)
Jake Locker (No. 8, 2011)
Ryan Tannehill (No. 8, 2012)
Matt Leinart (No. 10, 2006)
Blaine Gabbert (No. 10, 2011)
Patrick Mahomes (No. 10, 2017)
Six total; no QB drafted overall at six or nine, but three at 10? An oddity. But look: Leftwich (way back in 2003) was a really good player. Other than that, maybe Mahomes pans out, maybe Tannehill pans out, but the others are absolute dogs.
Eleven through fifteen (sort of)
Daunte Culpepper (11, 1999)
Ben Roethlisberger (11, 2004)
Jay Cutler (11, 2006)
Cade McNown (12, 1999)
Christian Ponder (No. 12, 2011)
Deshaun Watson (No. 12, 2017)
That's it, no QB's drafted at 13-15. Maybe I should have combined this group with the above group, and called them draft positions 7-12. As a group, this one is way better than the previous group. Roethlisberger is a Hall of Famer, Culpepper was on his way to a HOF career before injuries ended his effectiveness, Cutler has had a decent career (despite playing on mostly subpar teams, and, oh, despite alleged attitude “issues”), and Watson looks like the real deal. Cade McNown didn’t make it, but he was the fifth QB taken that year; how often does the 5th QB drafted succeed anyway? Plus, it was 19 years ago. So, the only guy drafted this century who didn't pan out in this grouping was Ponder.
16 through 20:
EJ Manuel (No. 16, 2013)
Josh Freeman (No. 17, 2009)
Chad Pennington (No. 18, 2000)
Joe Flacco (No. 18, 2008)
Kyle Boller (No. 19, 2003)
Only five total, but what a wide variety of results. Flacco won a SB and SB MVP, and I guess is a franchise type QB, but overall isn't someone I'd consider elite. Pennington put together a nice career, starting for the Jets five or six years and the Dolphins for a couple; nothing special, but certainly not a bust. Freeman’s career started off decent, but then he got Schiano as his HC; he’s a bust. Manuel and Boller are outright busts. One could argue that Flacco (from Delaware) and Pennington (from Marshall) might have been drafted slightly higher if they had played in NCAA Division I-A (FBS); in case you are wondering, back in 2000, Marshall was in NCAA Division I AA (FCS). So, based on this small sample, aside from the two FCS superstars, drafting a QB in this area seems to be fraught with danger.
Finally, 21 through 32. I combined this group since only 3 QB’s have been drafted after position #25:
Rex Grossman (No. 22, 2003)
J.P. Losman (No. 22, 2004)
Brady Quinn (No. 22, 2007)
Brandon Weeden (No. 22, 2012)
Johnny Manziel (No. 22, 2014)
Aaron Rodgers (No. 24, 2005)
Jason Campbell (No. 25, 2005)
Tim Tebow (No. 25, 2010)
Paxton Lynch (No. 26, 2016)
Patrick Ramsey (No. 32, 2002)
Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32, 2014)
What is it with #22? If someone said to you, "in the last 20 years, in the first round, the first position (#1 overall) has seen the most QB's picked; the second position (#2) has seen the second most QB’s picked; and the 3rd position (#3) has seen the 3rd most QB’s picked, but is tied with another draft position for that honor. What other draft position in the first round has seen the 3rd most QB’s taken?" Would you guess #22? I wouldn't. But look at all those 22’s...Aside from Rex Grossman, who was average at best, all busts. Of course, the last three were drafted by Cleveland, which might partially explain the terrible play.
In fact, most QB’s are busts in this area. Only one name truly stands out. And not that he is just a decent starter; Aaron Rodgers is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. However, do you remember that draft? Going in, it was a toss-up between Alex Smith and Rodgers as to who would go #1 overall to the 49ers; they were very closely rated. And most draft pundits thought whichever one didn't get picked #1 overall would fall in the draft since no team needed (or thought they needed) a QB early on. And it happened…one was picked #1 overall, the other fell. I’d have to believe that, if you had two guys like Smith and Rodgers ranked as the two best QB's in the draft today with very little separation, no way in h-e-double-hockey-sticks do they NOT go 1 and 2 overall. If Wentz, a QB from FCS North Dakota State can go #2 in the 2016 draft, then surely an Aaron Rodgers nowadays would be a #2 pick.
So, what did I learn from all of this? One, it’s work finding all this stuff (at least it was for me). If I messed any data up, I apologize and it wasn't intentional. But more to the point: it seems if you draft a QB in round 1, you better take the best one, or one of the best ones, and take him early. After draft pick #12, chances of finding a gem in round 1 are extremely small.