Post by bigbluejeep8888 on Aug 23, 2023 10:13:41 GMT -5
Decline in 2023. Bill Barnwell of ESPN states that the Giants are not likely to keep up with their health of Jones and Barkley, as well as their low turnover ratio. History is not kind to teams the following year.
The Giants were the league's worst defense by EPA per play on first and second down, but they were second best by the same metric on third down. They had the fourth-worst defense outside the red zone by EPA per play and the second best once teams got in scoring range.
Protecting the football was an important leap forward for Jones, who struggled mightily with fumbles during his first two NFL seasons. Despite scrambling often and being sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks, he fumbled just six times in 17 games. His interception rate also dropped for the third consecutive campaign, as he threw picks on just 1.1% of his passes, the league's best mark.
Avoiding giveaways is a great way to win games, but is it sustainable? Not often, no. Prorating all the stats above for a 17-game season, let's go back through 2002. Fifty-nine teams from 2002 to 2021 finished their season with no more than 16 giveaways. Those teams, unsurprisingly, were very successful: They won an average of 11.6 games.
The following year, just five of those 59 teams managed to sustain their turnover rate. The average team turned the ball over 7.2 more times the following campaign and dropped more than 10 spots in the takeaway rankings. The average team declined by an average of more than one win, although two teams managed to avoid that fate last season (the Eagles and Vikings).
The Giants were able to win nine games and advance to the postseason by claiming a series of narrow victories against many of the easier teams on their schedule. They won only one game by more than eight points, a 38-10 blowout win over the Colts where Indy turned to Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger. They were 2-7 against teams with a winning record, a group of opponents they'll see more often in 2023: The FPI projects them to face the eighth-toughest schedule, while the FTN Football Almanac expects New York to face the fifth-toughest slate.
It's tough to make a case that the Giants can repeat what they did in 2022. Are there reasons to believe they could improve their underlying performance? Absolutely. They were the third-youngest team in 2022 by snap-weighted age. They were cycling through replacement-level players at wide receiver, tight end and cornerback for stretches, and they've added Darren Waller and first-round pick Deonte Banks to the mix.
The Giants were the league's worst defense by EPA per play on first and second down, but they were second best by the same metric on third down. They had the fourth-worst defense outside the red zone by EPA per play and the second best once teams got in scoring range.
Protecting the football was an important leap forward for Jones, who struggled mightily with fumbles during his first two NFL seasons. Despite scrambling often and being sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks, he fumbled just six times in 17 games. His interception rate also dropped for the third consecutive campaign, as he threw picks on just 1.1% of his passes, the league's best mark.
Avoiding giveaways is a great way to win games, but is it sustainable? Not often, no. Prorating all the stats above for a 17-game season, let's go back through 2002. Fifty-nine teams from 2002 to 2021 finished their season with no more than 16 giveaways. Those teams, unsurprisingly, were very successful: They won an average of 11.6 games.
The following year, just five of those 59 teams managed to sustain their turnover rate. The average team turned the ball over 7.2 more times the following campaign and dropped more than 10 spots in the takeaway rankings. The average team declined by an average of more than one win, although two teams managed to avoid that fate last season (the Eagles and Vikings).
The Giants were able to win nine games and advance to the postseason by claiming a series of narrow victories against many of the easier teams on their schedule. They won only one game by more than eight points, a 38-10 blowout win over the Colts where Indy turned to Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger. They were 2-7 against teams with a winning record, a group of opponents they'll see more often in 2023: The FPI projects them to face the eighth-toughest schedule, while the FTN Football Almanac expects New York to face the fifth-toughest slate.
It's tough to make a case that the Giants can repeat what they did in 2022. Are there reasons to believe they could improve their underlying performance? Absolutely. They were the third-youngest team in 2022 by snap-weighted age. They were cycling through replacement-level players at wide receiver, tight end and cornerback for stretches, and they've added Darren Waller and first-round pick Deonte Banks to the mix.