Drafted Rookie Progression - By Position
Nov 20, 2019 19:35:15 GMT -5
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Post by theduke25 on Nov 20, 2019 19:35:15 GMT -5
I found this nice little (dated - 2014) article from bleacher report interesting:
www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2027100-which-position-presents-the-biggest-leap-for-nfl-draft-prospects.amp.html
I was formulating a response to one of the draft projection threads but decided to spin it here, rather than hijack whichever topic prompted me to start digging. I think this "data" is useful in grading our own 2019 draftees; as well as analyzing (guessing) impact 2020 picks will have in year 1 and beyond.
We all know QBs either sit or likely learn the hard way with a "learning" first year. Rarely does a QB like Luck nail it their rookie season, let alone continue a high level of play. But feel free to use it to reinforce what we already knew - DJ was scheduled to have a rough rookie season and expectations are that he improves in 2020.
***
More importantly, key positions we still need to address:
Starting with cornerback. While the data (5 years old) suggests cornerbacks are one of the worst impact players in year 1, they skyrocket in year 2 and beyond. Do I have hopes for Baker turning into a shutdown corner? Personally, no. You can't teach speed. But I'll not only take any type of better version in 2020, I'll also take solace knowing that with three rookie defensive backs on the roster, the odds are good at least ONE of them makes a year 2 leap.
Offensive linemen show significant progression in their second year. When looking at the second diagram which focuses on higher than average value (presumably rounds 1 and 2 as the article references, 2002 - 2011) they match up closer to QBs in that you really know what you have by their second NFL season. This reinforces my belief that if we're plugging in rookie linemen we're looking at a 2020 headache - albeit we can take solace that if we follow the averages we'll breathe easier in 2021. Stop gaps in addition to grooming draft picks would be more ideal. DG has a tall order to fill but it's not an impossible ask.
Next up, the dreaded running back figures. Will Barkley follow suite and take a step back next year? Has he already plateaued, squandering what could have been his best years behind horrible blocking and a lingering year 2 injury? Personally, I doubt it. The numbers are averages and I don't think SB needs to succumb to the rule of thumb, but the RB data is interesting.
It's also noteworthy that safeties (a position we should be looking hard at in the draft) are the only other group to make a decent impact years 1 and 2, and then regress sharply in year 3 - this I admit leaves a decent sized pit in my stomach.
The article unfortunately doesn't publish all the hard data it collected and summarizes it's results. So if anyone is already aware, or finds additional data (especially more current data) I'd be curious to look at it. I don't believe much has changed over the last 5 years, none-the-less...
But here's a sincere question for you. Given that we have one standout running back on the roster that suffered a setback due to injury in year 2 (we can only presume that's the case) - would it be insane to see if a running back is available in round 2? Certainly a later round pick would be warranted, right? So would pulling the trigger on a high projection left on the board by the end of round two be ridiculous? Though doubtful, a trade down early on might give us that type of scenario and we can always trade *gulp* up *bleh* again.
Nearly all positions except WR show that players, even high impact players, improve significantly after their first year. You can also make the same case for linebacker when you look at the second diagram which follows a a higher valued sample group of players (2002 - 2011). Mainly because linebacker seems to have the highest concentration if diamonds - more on that below.
***
The pie chart analysis gives more information but once again, the source figures (total numbers) aren't shown. Taking the % at face value and doing some basic math, it's shown (as most of us already know) that high value running backs have the highest rate of failure after three NFL seasons. Only about 43% are still playing at, a loosely defined, high level (PFR AV - linked in the article).
WR comes in higher at about 55% and offensive linemen are really solid at 65%. TEs look like they enjoy the easiest career path at over 80%. However, the data points out that the assessment for TEs represents and virtually caps 1st and 2nd rounders by the end of year 2 and that TE has a relatively small sample pool compared to other positions addressed in the first two rounds. It further points out that if a TE is valued above average, he's going to show you everything he has before year 3. How does that bode for Engram's progression outlook in the middle of year three?
If you dissect the pie charts you see that offensive linemen, while having good progression overall have the second highest % of quick and slow developers. It shows that like QBs, you can start them but you won't get the most out of them until years 1 and 2. And they generally stick around (first and second rounders specifically).
Now let's take a glance at those awful one and done slices. Safeties are alarming! The chart instantly rekindles the flood of safeties that were available in the 2018 off-season. As of half the trams in the NFL said "thanks but no thanks" to the guys on their rosters leaving the other half to stupidly overpay or pass altogether. Guys like "the honey badger" had trouble finding a team before the start of the season. This ultimately leads me to believe that either the data provided is significant, or at their very least GMs are buying into similar data sets.
TEs and CBS follow suite in order. Whereas RBs and QBs appear to take longer to washout, overall.
***
Finally, the summary of draftees that make an impact year 1. I think most of us already know that players on defense have a better shot at making an impact in their first year. But the real "gold mine" appears to be linebackers. I only see two true LBs in 2019's first round (edge guys are hard to define). Delvin White has had ups and downs but Devin Bush might make DRoY. 2018s linebackers overall are lookking pretty good playing on solid defenses (Bills, Bears, Cowboys). Say... we could use a linebacker, right?
The real caveat when looking at the bar graph, is safeties. The failure rate by year 3 is alarming but hey, a first rounder will help out for a year or two right? It'll be interesting to see if Minkah can prove longevity now that he's with an organization that knows how to use him. Maybe we can break the trend if we pull the trigger on Delpit. Odds are against us but they're called averages for a reason.
And last we recognize that all offensive position groups take longer to develop sans TE (a position I believe many besides myself would be upset over, if we spent our first round on). So, while addressing the OL via the draft is a good idea, especially for the long term, the odds are it won't solve the problem in 2020. A pass rusher would have odds closer to LB than OL with roughly the same chance of longevity by year 3. That makes me believe a high profile pass rusher is a safer bet despite the mixed results from the class of 2019. Putting aside the staggering safety drop off numbers, CBs are pretty hit and miss looking at the data and reflecting on players over the last couple of decades (don't think that surprises anyone).
Have fun with the charts. If you have/find more data please post and reference it. If you want to interpret the data I found differently, feel free. Just thought a few people here might find it interesting if they haven't see it yet (I didn't find it myself until yesterday).
www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2027100-which-position-presents-the-biggest-leap-for-nfl-draft-prospects.amp.html
I was formulating a response to one of the draft projection threads but decided to spin it here, rather than hijack whichever topic prompted me to start digging. I think this "data" is useful in grading our own 2019 draftees; as well as analyzing (guessing) impact 2020 picks will have in year 1 and beyond.
We all know QBs either sit or likely learn the hard way with a "learning" first year. Rarely does a QB like Luck nail it their rookie season, let alone continue a high level of play. But feel free to use it to reinforce what we already knew - DJ was scheduled to have a rough rookie season and expectations are that he improves in 2020.
***
More importantly, key positions we still need to address:
Starting with cornerback. While the data (5 years old) suggests cornerbacks are one of the worst impact players in year 1, they skyrocket in year 2 and beyond. Do I have hopes for Baker turning into a shutdown corner? Personally, no. You can't teach speed. But I'll not only take any type of better version in 2020, I'll also take solace knowing that with three rookie defensive backs on the roster, the odds are good at least ONE of them makes a year 2 leap.
Offensive linemen show significant progression in their second year. When looking at the second diagram which focuses on higher than average value (presumably rounds 1 and 2 as the article references, 2002 - 2011) they match up closer to QBs in that you really know what you have by their second NFL season. This reinforces my belief that if we're plugging in rookie linemen we're looking at a 2020 headache - albeit we can take solace that if we follow the averages we'll breathe easier in 2021. Stop gaps in addition to grooming draft picks would be more ideal. DG has a tall order to fill but it's not an impossible ask.
Next up, the dreaded running back figures. Will Barkley follow suite and take a step back next year? Has he already plateaued, squandering what could have been his best years behind horrible blocking and a lingering year 2 injury? Personally, I doubt it. The numbers are averages and I don't think SB needs to succumb to the rule of thumb, but the RB data is interesting.
It's also noteworthy that safeties (a position we should be looking hard at in the draft) are the only other group to make a decent impact years 1 and 2, and then regress sharply in year 3 - this I admit leaves a decent sized pit in my stomach.
The article unfortunately doesn't publish all the hard data it collected and summarizes it's results. So if anyone is already aware, or finds additional data (especially more current data) I'd be curious to look at it. I don't believe much has changed over the last 5 years, none-the-less...
But here's a sincere question for you. Given that we have one standout running back on the roster that suffered a setback due to injury in year 2 (we can only presume that's the case) - would it be insane to see if a running back is available in round 2? Certainly a later round pick would be warranted, right? So would pulling the trigger on a high projection left on the board by the end of round two be ridiculous? Though doubtful, a trade down early on might give us that type of scenario and we can always trade *gulp* up *bleh* again.
Nearly all positions except WR show that players, even high impact players, improve significantly after their first year. You can also make the same case for linebacker when you look at the second diagram which follows a a higher valued sample group of players (2002 - 2011). Mainly because linebacker seems to have the highest concentration if diamonds - more on that below.
***
The pie chart analysis gives more information but once again, the source figures (total numbers) aren't shown. Taking the % at face value and doing some basic math, it's shown (as most of us already know) that high value running backs have the highest rate of failure after three NFL seasons. Only about 43% are still playing at, a loosely defined, high level (PFR AV - linked in the article).
WR comes in higher at about 55% and offensive linemen are really solid at 65%. TEs look like they enjoy the easiest career path at over 80%. However, the data points out that the assessment for TEs represents and virtually caps 1st and 2nd rounders by the end of year 2 and that TE has a relatively small sample pool compared to other positions addressed in the first two rounds. It further points out that if a TE is valued above average, he's going to show you everything he has before year 3. How does that bode for Engram's progression outlook in the middle of year three?
If you dissect the pie charts you see that offensive linemen, while having good progression overall have the second highest % of quick and slow developers. It shows that like QBs, you can start them but you won't get the most out of them until years 1 and 2. And they generally stick around (first and second rounders specifically).
Now let's take a glance at those awful one and done slices. Safeties are alarming! The chart instantly rekindles the flood of safeties that were available in the 2018 off-season. As of half the trams in the NFL said "thanks but no thanks" to the guys on their rosters leaving the other half to stupidly overpay or pass altogether. Guys like "the honey badger" had trouble finding a team before the start of the season. This ultimately leads me to believe that either the data provided is significant, or at their very least GMs are buying into similar data sets.
TEs and CBS follow suite in order. Whereas RBs and QBs appear to take longer to washout, overall.
***
Finally, the summary of draftees that make an impact year 1. I think most of us already know that players on defense have a better shot at making an impact in their first year. But the real "gold mine" appears to be linebackers. I only see two true LBs in 2019's first round (edge guys are hard to define). Delvin White has had ups and downs but Devin Bush might make DRoY. 2018s linebackers overall are lookking pretty good playing on solid defenses (Bills, Bears, Cowboys). Say... we could use a linebacker, right?
The real caveat when looking at the bar graph, is safeties. The failure rate by year 3 is alarming but hey, a first rounder will help out for a year or two right? It'll be interesting to see if Minkah can prove longevity now that he's with an organization that knows how to use him. Maybe we can break the trend if we pull the trigger on Delpit. Odds are against us but they're called averages for a reason.
And last we recognize that all offensive position groups take longer to develop sans TE (a position I believe many besides myself would be upset over, if we spent our first round on). So, while addressing the OL via the draft is a good idea, especially for the long term, the odds are it won't solve the problem in 2020. A pass rusher would have odds closer to LB than OL with roughly the same chance of longevity by year 3. That makes me believe a high profile pass rusher is a safer bet despite the mixed results from the class of 2019. Putting aside the staggering safety drop off numbers, CBs are pretty hit and miss looking at the data and reflecting on players over the last couple of decades (don't think that surprises anyone).
Have fun with the charts. If you have/find more data please post and reference it. If you want to interpret the data I found differently, feel free. Just thought a few people here might find it interesting if they haven't see it yet (I didn't find it myself until yesterday).