Next Gen Stats - Analytics Predicting NFL Draft Success
Mar 6, 2020 3:38:38 GMT -5
wahl35 likes this
Post by AmaniToomerToeDrag on Mar 6, 2020 3:38:38 GMT -5
I thought this was interesting. This analytics model uses each college player's historical data, combine data (physical measurable too), and data from NFL combines (since 2003) and college statistics from 2005 to now. They feel confident in their statistical model. (also explained here)
They give a final "Draft Score" to show where the prospect ranks and that predicts their success in the NFL. Each "Draft Score" given is for that prospects specific position.
For Defensive ends they gave Chase Young the highest "Draft Score" with a 97 overall (even though he didn't participate in the combine, they used an estimated Athleticism score for him). Anything above 90 is an elite prospect. Kenny Willekes got an 85 draft score while Yetur Gross-Matos got a 82. AJ Epenesa didn't make the top 5 list. Meaning that his score was below a 77.
For LBs they gave Isaiah Simmons a 95 overall draft score. They are banking on him being an elite NFL player. Isaiah's 10 yard split in the 40 yard dash was a ridiculous 1.51, simulating putting your hand in the dirt at the line of scrimmage and accelerating off the line.
For CBs there is a shocker! The top CB of this draft class is Reggie Robinson II with an 89 Draft Score. #2 Kristian Fulton with an 86 draft score. #3 overall was Amik Robertson with an 84 overall Draft Score. Jeff Okudah got a dismal 82 draft score. Making him projected to NOT be an elite NFL player. He was the 4th highest rated CB according to their data! I believe his "Production" matrix is what hurt his overall score since the first year he ever got an interception was in 2019 (nothing in 2017 or 2018)
For RBs they gave Jonathan Taylor a 98 Draft Score. Very high! JK Dobbins got a 94. AJ Dillon got a 71 Draft score (his score was hurt by his lack of production). I put Dillon in there for the Dillon fans here. He's not the 3rd highest RB.
For WRs they gave Ceedee Lamb the highest score with a 96 Draft score. Tyler Johnson got a 92 draft score (I haven't watched any tape on him yet). Tee Higgins and Jerry Jeudy tied for 3rd overall with a 90 Draft score. In 5th place was Justin Jeffers with an 82 Draft Score.
For QBs they gave Tua Tagovailoa a 95 draft score and they also gave Joe Burrow a 95 draft score as well. Justin Herbert a 90 draft score.
They have not released their full data on DT or OL prospects yet.
To put some historical data in perspective three RBs to score a 99 "Draft score" since 2003 would be Saquon Barkley, Adrian Peterson, and Larry Johnson. Check this image to see the last 5 draft classes' Draft Scores:
/photo/1
They give a final "Draft Score" to show where the prospect ranks and that predicts their success in the NFL. Each "Draft Score" given is for that prospects specific position.
For Defensive ends they gave Chase Young the highest "Draft Score" with a 97 overall (even though he didn't participate in the combine, they used an estimated Athleticism score for him). Anything above 90 is an elite prospect. Kenny Willekes got an 85 draft score while Yetur Gross-Matos got a 82. AJ Epenesa didn't make the top 5 list. Meaning that his score was below a 77.
For LBs they gave Isaiah Simmons a 95 overall draft score. They are banking on him being an elite NFL player. Isaiah's 10 yard split in the 40 yard dash was a ridiculous 1.51, simulating putting your hand in the dirt at the line of scrimmage and accelerating off the line.
For CBs there is a shocker! The top CB of this draft class is Reggie Robinson II with an 89 Draft Score. #2 Kristian Fulton with an 86 draft score. #3 overall was Amik Robertson with an 84 overall Draft Score. Jeff Okudah got a dismal 82 draft score. Making him projected to NOT be an elite NFL player. He was the 4th highest rated CB according to their data! I believe his "Production" matrix is what hurt his overall score since the first year he ever got an interception was in 2019 (nothing in 2017 or 2018)
For RBs they gave Jonathan Taylor a 98 Draft Score. Very high! JK Dobbins got a 94. AJ Dillon got a 71 Draft score (his score was hurt by his lack of production). I put Dillon in there for the Dillon fans here. He's not the 3rd highest RB.
For WRs they gave Ceedee Lamb the highest score with a 96 Draft score. Tyler Johnson got a 92 draft score (I haven't watched any tape on him yet). Tee Higgins and Jerry Jeudy tied for 3rd overall with a 90 Draft score. In 5th place was Justin Jeffers with an 82 Draft Score.
For QBs they gave Tua Tagovailoa a 95 draft score and they also gave Joe Burrow a 95 draft score as well. Justin Herbert a 90 draft score.
They have not released their full data on DT or OL prospects yet.
To put some historical data in perspective three RBs to score a 99 "Draft score" since 2003 would be Saquon Barkley, Adrian Peterson, and Larry Johnson. Check this image to see the last 5 draft classes' Draft Scores:
/photo/1