Post by grizz299 on Jan 27, 2018 13:23:06 GMT -5
Some statistic geek (I apologize for not having the link) has done a study on completion rates in college and their transference to the pros.
In the first instance, he sets the bar at 60% completion rate in college as necessary to translate to success in the pros. Then he makes adjustments and sets 58.5 as the actual lowest level that can produce success in the pros. There simply is no one who has a lower completion rate who has had a top pro career - according to his stats.
He goes on to show that completion rates - which after all are primarily based on accuracy - is almost immutable and directly translates to what the prospect will do in the pros. We might believe it's coachable, we might believe it 's based on systems, but apparently it's a skill set that's based on inherent and almost immutable skills. I find it interesting to think of guys like Koufax who came up wild and learned accuracy, but apparently throwing a football is very different - and when you think on it, that makes sense.
Mannings' completion rate in college was just over 60% (not great) and that's what we've seen in the pros as he is within one degree of his college rate and has gained a rep for inconsistency. The writer draws that comparison with so many QB's that at the end of the day the weight of his data base gains creditability.
So Josh Allen is compelling. Runs like a half back, can whistle the ball while running, incredible arm strength and appropriate height.
His completion rate is 56%.
Someone is going to fall in love and suffer a broken heart. Mayfield?? 70%. Seabiscuit looked like a runt mule next to the majesticness of The MIghty War Admiral...and hopefully everyone remembers how that turned out.I'll take runt Mayfield over Josh Allen every day of the week.
In the first instance, he sets the bar at 60% completion rate in college as necessary to translate to success in the pros. Then he makes adjustments and sets 58.5 as the actual lowest level that can produce success in the pros. There simply is no one who has a lower completion rate who has had a top pro career - according to his stats.
He goes on to show that completion rates - which after all are primarily based on accuracy - is almost immutable and directly translates to what the prospect will do in the pros. We might believe it's coachable, we might believe it 's based on systems, but apparently it's a skill set that's based on inherent and almost immutable skills. I find it interesting to think of guys like Koufax who came up wild and learned accuracy, but apparently throwing a football is very different - and when you think on it, that makes sense.
Mannings' completion rate in college was just over 60% (not great) and that's what we've seen in the pros as he is within one degree of his college rate and has gained a rep for inconsistency. The writer draws that comparison with so many QB's that at the end of the day the weight of his data base gains creditability.
So Josh Allen is compelling. Runs like a half back, can whistle the ball while running, incredible arm strength and appropriate height.
His completion rate is 56%.
Someone is going to fall in love and suffer a broken heart. Mayfield?? 70%. Seabiscuit looked like a runt mule next to the majesticness of The MIghty War Admiral...and hopefully everyone remembers how that turned out.I'll take runt Mayfield over Josh Allen every day of the week.