Post by Sunshine on Jan 30, 2018 10:21:40 GMT -5
What is the QB bust potential with the first two picks of the draft (since 2000)? I've created three catagories: (a) Franchise QB; (b) Decent QB--that is, better than bust but not quite a franchise QB; (c) Bust QB.
I'm just looking at the QBs.
2017:
(1) Browns: M.Garrett DE
(2) Bears: M.Trubisky QB
Conclusion: I'll give Trubisky an incomplete.
2016:
(1) Rams: J.Goff QB
(2) Eagles: C.Wentz QB
Conclusion: They both look like studs, true franchise QBs.
2015:
(1) Bucs: J.Winston QB
(2) Titans: M.Mariota QB
Conclusion: Winston looks like the real deal whereas Mariota could go either way--I'll give him a decent grade.
2014:
(1) Texans: J.Clowny DE
(2) Rams: G.Robinson OT
2013
(1) Chiefs: E.Fisher OT
(2) Jags: L.Joeckel OT
2012
(1) Colts: A.Luck QB
(2) Redskins: R.Griffin QB
Conclusion: Luck is a franchise QB; RG3 was a bust.
2011:
(1) Panthers: C.Newton QB
(2) Broncos: V.Miller LB
Conclusion: Newton is obviously a stud QB.
2010:
(1) Rams: S.Bradford QB
(2) Lions: D.Suh DT
Conclusion: I'll give Bradford a decent grade.
2009:
(1) Lions: M.Stafford QB
(2) Rams: J.Smith OT
Conclusion: Stafford = franchise QB
2008:
(1) Dolphins: J.Long OT
(2) Rams: C.Long DE
2007:
(1) Raiders: J.Russell QB
(2) Lions: C.Johnson WR
Conclusion: Russell is one of the most memorable busts.
2006:
(1) Texans: M.Williams DE
(2) Saints: R.Bush RB
2005:
(1) 49ers: A.Smith QB
(2) Dolphins R.Brown RB
Conclusion: Smith = decent
2004:
(1) Chargers: E.Manning QB
(2) Raiders: R.Gallery OT
Conclusion: Manning = franchise QB
2003:
(1) Bengals: C.Palmer QB
(2) Lions: C.Rodgers WR
Conclusion: Palmer = franchise QB
2002:
Texans: D.Carr QB
Panthers: J.Peppers DE
Conclusion: Carr = bust
2001:
Falcons: M.Vick QB
Cardinals: L.Davis OG
Conclusion: Vick = decent
2000:
Browns: C.Brown DE
Redskins: L.Arrington LB
Since 2000, 16 QBs were selected with either the first or second pick, but one of those QBs is getting an incomplete, leaving us with 15.
8 out of 15: franchise QBs. 53% chance
4 out of 15: decent QBs. 27% chance
3 out of 15: bust QBs. 20% chance
KEY POINT: There is a 80% chance that you will draft a decent QB or better with one of the first two picks.
I'm just looking at the QBs.
2017:
(1) Browns: M.Garrett DE
(2) Bears: M.Trubisky QB
Conclusion: I'll give Trubisky an incomplete.
2016:
(1) Rams: J.Goff QB
(2) Eagles: C.Wentz QB
Conclusion: They both look like studs, true franchise QBs.
2015:
(1) Bucs: J.Winston QB
(2) Titans: M.Mariota QB
Conclusion: Winston looks like the real deal whereas Mariota could go either way--I'll give him a decent grade.
2014:
(1) Texans: J.Clowny DE
(2) Rams: G.Robinson OT
2013
(1) Chiefs: E.Fisher OT
(2) Jags: L.Joeckel OT
2012
(1) Colts: A.Luck QB
(2) Redskins: R.Griffin QB
Conclusion: Luck is a franchise QB; RG3 was a bust.
2011:
(1) Panthers: C.Newton QB
(2) Broncos: V.Miller LB
Conclusion: Newton is obviously a stud QB.
2010:
(1) Rams: S.Bradford QB
(2) Lions: D.Suh DT
Conclusion: I'll give Bradford a decent grade.
2009:
(1) Lions: M.Stafford QB
(2) Rams: J.Smith OT
Conclusion: Stafford = franchise QB
2008:
(1) Dolphins: J.Long OT
(2) Rams: C.Long DE
2007:
(1) Raiders: J.Russell QB
(2) Lions: C.Johnson WR
Conclusion: Russell is one of the most memorable busts.
2006:
(1) Texans: M.Williams DE
(2) Saints: R.Bush RB
2005:
(1) 49ers: A.Smith QB
(2) Dolphins R.Brown RB
Conclusion: Smith = decent
2004:
(1) Chargers: E.Manning QB
(2) Raiders: R.Gallery OT
Conclusion: Manning = franchise QB
2003:
(1) Bengals: C.Palmer QB
(2) Lions: C.Rodgers WR
Conclusion: Palmer = franchise QB
2002:
Texans: D.Carr QB
Panthers: J.Peppers DE
Conclusion: Carr = bust
2001:
Falcons: M.Vick QB
Cardinals: L.Davis OG
Conclusion: Vick = decent
2000:
Browns: C.Brown DE
Redskins: L.Arrington LB
Since 2000, 16 QBs were selected with either the first or second pick, but one of those QBs is getting an incomplete, leaving us with 15.
8 out of 15: franchise QBs. 53% chance
4 out of 15: decent QBs. 27% chance
3 out of 15: bust QBs. 20% chance
KEY POINT: There is a 80% chance that you will draft a decent QB or better with one of the first two picks.